The September month remained true to its billing of being a historically weak period in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC), closed September with a loss around 7%. The bulls may be cheered by October because Bitcoin (BTC) has risen in six out of eight years. It fell only in 2018-2014.
Bulls began the month with a positive outlook, while bears scrambled to close their short positions. Data shows that short positions worth more than $270 millions were closed within minutes. Many altcoins have also embraced Bitcoin’s enthusiasm, which has seen them surge higher today.
Everyday cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
In the past two months, Bitcoin has closely tracked PlanB’s Stock to-Flow model projections. If PlanB is right the third time, Bitcoin could rally up to $63,000. This is the model’s prediction of October.
Although crypto prices have been strong at the beginning of the month, will bulls be in a position to maintain the momentum and increase them further? Or will bears sell higher levels to gain more profit?
Let’s look at the charts for the top 10 cryptocurrencies to see what they are.
In the last few days, the bears’ inability to sink Bitcoin below the 100 day simple moving average ($41.470) could have attracted short-covering from traders and aggressive bulls.
Daily chart of BTC/USDT Source: TradingView
Bullish momentum picked-up today after bulls drove the price above its 20-day exponential moving mean ($44,485). The price has risen above the 50-day SMA (46,604) due to sustained buying.
The bulls will push the BTC/USDT pair higher than the right shoulder at $48,843.20 if the price holds above the 50-day SMA. This could allow for a move up to the stiff resistance of $52,920.
If the price falls below the overhead resistance or current level, but not below the 20-day EMA it will indicate that sentiment is positive and traders are buying dips. To gain the upper hand, the bears will need to lower the price below the 20 day EMA.
The Ether (ETH) September 29 candlestick’s long wick shows that bears have sold at higher levels, but it is a positive sign that bulls didn’t allow the price below the 100-day SMA ($2,794). This indicates that bulls accumulated at lower levels.
Daily chart of ETH/USDT Source: TradingView
The price has reached the 50-day SMA ($3,290) due to aggressive buying over the past two days. Bears must defend the zone between the 50 day SMA and the downtrendline. If bulls push the price higher, the ETH/USDT currency pair could reach $3,676.28.
The 20-day EMA is now flattened and the relative strength indicator (RSI), has risen to the positive territory. This suggests that bulls may be making a comeback. If the price falls below the 100 day SMA, this view will be reaffirmed.
Cardano (ADA), bounced off the $2.02 mark on Sept. 29. This indicates that bulls are trying to defend the area between psychological levels at $2 and $1.94. The 20-day EMA ($2.26) could be a strong resistance to the recovery.
Daily chart ADA/USDT Source: TradingView
If the price falls below the 20-day EMA it will indicate that sentiment is still negative and traders are buying rallies. The bears will attempt to lower the price below $1.89 at the 100-day SMA.
Contrarily, if bulls continue to drive the price higher than the 20-day EMA it will be a sign that there is more demand than supply. The ADA/USDT currency pair could rise to the 50 day SMA ($2.45) which will likely act as a stiff resistance. Bullish momentum could pick up if the resistance is broken and closed above.
Binance Coin (BNB), which has seen a sharp rally over the past two days, suggests that the bulls are buying aggressively and the bears are short-covering. The hurdle at the 20 day EMA (384) has been cleared by the buyers and they may now attempt to challenge the overhead resistance of $433.
Daily chart BNB/USDT TradingView
If the price drops from $433, but bounces off the 20-day EMA it will indicate that sentiment is positive and traders are buying dips.
If the price breaks and closes above $433, it could open the way for a rally to $518.90. Bulls have begun to make a comeback. The 20-day EMA is now higher and the RSI has jumped in the positive territory.
However, if the price drops from its current level and falls below the 20-day EMA then the BNB/USDT pairing could fall to $340.
Today, XRP’s narrow trading range between the 20-day EMA ($0.99) & the 100-day SMA (0.89) was resolved to the upside. Bulls are back in this game, as evidenced by the flattening 20 day EMA and the RSI close to the midpoint.
Daily chart of XRP/USDT Source: TradingView
The candlestick’s long wick today suggests that bears are not giving up on the 50-day SMA ($1.11). The bears will attempt to lower the price to the 100 day SMA if the price drops from its current level.
However, bulls pushing and maintaining the price above 50-day SMA will indicate that the correction is over. The XRP/USDT currency pair could then begin its northward march towards $1.41.
Bears have successfully defended the 20 day EMA ($142) over the past few trading days but they couldn’t pull Solana, (SOL), below the support zone of the 50-day SMA ($122 and $116. This indicates that selling has slowed down at lower levels.
Daily chart of SOL/USDT Source: TradingView
Today’s bullish push has pushed the price higher than the 20-day EMA, which suggests that the correction phase may have ended. The SOL/USDT currency pair could rise to $166’s 50% Fibonacci level and then to $177.80 for the 61.8% level of retracement.
If the price falls from resistance, but bounces off of the 20-day EMA it will indicate that sentiment has turned to the positive side and traders see the dips in the market as a buying opportunity. To gain the upper hand, the bears must pull the price below $116.
The bulls have pushed Polkadot, (DOT), above the 20-day EMA (30.11) and today’s downtrend line which are the first signs that selling pressure might be reducing.
Daily chart of DOT/USDT Source: TradingView
Bulls are showing some strength with the flattening 20-day EMA, and the RSI just below the midpoint. The DOT/USDT pairing could reach $33.60 if buyers can maintain the price above the downtrendline.
If the resistance is broken, aggressive buying could be attracted and the pair could rally to $38.77. This assumption is incorrect. If the price falls below the neckline or the overhead resistance, it could be a downtrend.
Related: NFTs are a more risky investment than cryptos, report
Dogecoin’s tight trading range between $0.19 and $0.21 was resolved today to the upside, which indicates that bulls have taken in the selling. The bulls will attempt to push the price higher than the 20-day EMA ($0.22) which could be a strong resistance.
Daily chart of DOGE/USDT Source: TradingView
It will indicate that traders are buying dips if the price falls below the 20-day EMA, but not below $0.21. This will increase the chances of a break above 20-day EMA. The DOGE/USDT pair may rise to the downtrend line if that happens.
Contrary to popular belief, a fall in the price from the 20-day EMA will indicate that demand has dried up at higher levels. A close below $0.19 could signal that the bearish momentum will pick up.
The LUNA token of Terra protocol fell below the 20-day EMA ($35.02), but the bears were unable to capitalize. The price rose above the 20-day EMA after the bulls bought at lower levels.
Daily chart of LUNA/USDT Source: TradingView
Although the LUNA/USDT pair faces stiff resistance at its downtrend line, the candlestick’s long tail suggests that bulls may be accumulating on dips. This raises the likelihood of a break above this downtrend line.
The price closing above the downtrend line will indicate that the correction is over. The price could then reach $45.01, which would be the all-time high. If the price falls below the SMA (50 days), then this bullish view of the market will be invalidated.
Despite the fact that the bulls failed to maintain Uniswap’s price above the downtrendline of the descending channel for the past few days, it is a positive sign that they didn’t lose much ground.
Daily chart of UNI/USDT Source: TradingView
Today’s strong buying has lifted the price above the channel to the overhead resistance at SMA 50 ($25.72). This resistance is crucial for bears to protect as if it cracks, momentum could be gained by the UNI/USDT pairing.
The pair could then climb to $27.62 and rally to $31.41. If the price drops below the 50-day SMA the bears will attempt to sink it below $22.
Risk is inherent in every investment or trading move. Before making any investment or trading move, you should do your research.
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